The shutdown of Cobre Panamá—one of the largest copper mines globally—has become a cautionary tale of how political risk can undermine significant investments from Western mining companies. Developed and operated by Canadian company First Quantum Minerals, the mine represented the largest private investment in Panama’s history, totaling $10 billion, or about 12 percent of the country’s GDP. After beginning operations in 2019, the mine quickly became an economic pillar, contributing nearly 5 percent of GDP, 7 percent of current external revenues, and employing around 40,800 people—roughly 2 percent of the workforce. It also played a critical role in global copper supply at a time when many existing mines are aging and output is declining, standing out as one of the few major copper mines that entered production worldwide in the past 15 years....

The Issue...

For many years, while China strategically secured minerals from around the world, the United States rarely used foreign policy to obtain the minerals it needs. That has finally changed — and dramatically so. Within the first 40 days of President Trump’s term, he has expressed interest in acquiring Greenland for its rare earths; annexing Canada, with its vast reserves of uranium and copper; and securing control over Ukraine’s rare earths and titanium in exchange for continued U.S. support....

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have reached a bilateral agreement for the United States to jointly invest in Ukraine’s critical minerals and other valuable resources. While the framework leaves many details to be worked out, this is the first agreement of its kind. As additional countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, seek a similar deal, understanding the terms of the Ukraine deal and its likely efficacy has important implications for U.S. mineral security....

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are in discussions regarding an agreement that would grant the United States access to Ukraine’s critical minerals and other valuable resources. While the specifics are still being finalized, the deal would allow the United States to obtain a portion of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in compensation for the financial aid provided to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia and potentially for future aid....

Allowing the relationship to continue on the current trajectory could prove to be a costly war that has no winners...

Safeguarding the minerals supply chains for advanced technologies in strategic industries is an economic and national security imperative. Yet significant vulnerabilities continue to exist in the supply chain, despite the ongoing efforts by government and businesses to address them. Policymakers now face the immense task of fortifying supplies of everything from lithium and graphite for advanced battery chemistries to tungsten and rare earth elements for the next generation of warfighting technologies. The United States will need to strengthen both its mission clarity and its execution with a comprehensive strategy focused on domestic resource development, advanced processing and recycling technologies, international partnerships, and sustainable practices....

The Issue...

Drive to secure natural resources behind some of the boldest policy decisions over the past century...

As the United States races to reduce its reliance on China for minerals vital for national, economic, and energy security, tariffs with Canada may drastically undermine these efforts. Canada is the biggest source of the United States mineral imports, providing key sources of uranium, aluminum, nickel, steel copper, and niobium. To put it into perspective, in 2023, Canada accounted for $47 billion of United States mineral imports. China followed with $28.3 billion. The consequences of tariffs would be particularly profound for the defense industry, nuclear energy, and heavy manufacturing. A 25 percent tariff on Canadian mineral imports could cost U.S. off-takers an additional $11.75 billion—a figure that would increase as base metal and uranium prices recover....

More active US engagement on critical minerals projects globally is to be welcomed...

On Tuesday, December 3, China announced stringent export restrictions on “dual-use” technologies for both civilian and military use, specifically targeted at the United States. These restrictions double down on previously announced controls on these metals, going so far as to ban shipments of antimony, gallium, and germanium to the United States. The new restrictions marked several firsts in the trade war—the first time Chinese critical minerals export restrictions were targeted at the United States rather than all countries and the first time restrictions on critical minerals were a direct response to restrictions on advanced technologies. Critical mineral security is now intrinsically linked to the escalating tech trade war....