Allowing the relationship to continue on the current trajectory could prove to be a costly war that has no winners...

Safeguarding the minerals supply chains for advanced technologies in strategic industries is an economic and national security imperative. Yet significant vulnerabilities continue to exist in the supply chain, despite the ongoing efforts by government and businesses to address them. Policymakers now face the immense task of fortifying supplies of everything from lithium and graphite for advanced battery chemistries to tungsten and rare earth elements for the next generation of warfighting technologies. The United States will need to strengthen both its mission clarity and its execution with a comprehensive strategy focused on domestic resource development, advanced processing and recycling technologies, international partnerships, and sustainable practices....

The Issue...

Drive to secure natural resources behind some of the boldest policy decisions over the past century...

As the United States races to reduce its reliance on China for minerals vital for national, economic, and energy security, tariffs with Canada may drastically undermine these efforts. Canada is the biggest source of the United States mineral imports, providing key sources of uranium, aluminum, nickel, steel copper, and niobium. To put it into perspective, in 2023, Canada accounted for $47 billion of United States mineral imports. China followed with $28.3 billion. The consequences of tariffs would be particularly profound for the defense industry, nuclear energy, and heavy manufacturing. A 25 percent tariff on Canadian mineral imports could cost U.S. off-takers an additional $11.75 billion—a figure that would increase as base metal and uranium prices recover....

More active US engagement on critical minerals projects globally is to be welcomed...

On Tuesday, December 3, China announced stringent export restrictions on “dual-use” technologies for both civilian and military use, specifically targeted at the United States. These restrictions double down on previously announced controls on these metals, going so far as to ban shipments of antimony, gallium, and germanium to the United States. The new restrictions marked several firsts in the trade war—the first time Chinese critical minerals export restrictions were targeted at the United States rather than all countries and the first time restrictions on critical minerals were a direct response to restrictions on advanced technologies. Critical mineral security is now intrinsically linked to the escalating tech trade war....

Miners, especially of PGMs, would do themselves a favour by finding new trading partners...

Cost of tariffs passed on to end users can be a chokehold on industries that are labour intensive...

Building minerals security is one of the most bipartisan goals in Washington. The United States first opened its Bureau of Mines in 1910 to coordinate minerals security needs. It was closed in 1996. In many ways, the U.S. government rapidly decelerated its efforts over the subsequent two decades. However, over the last seven years, the United States realized its reliance on China for critical minerals posed serious risks to its national and energy security alongside its economic competitiveness and prosperity....

Copper is vital to U.S. national, economic, and energy security. Everything—from clean energy technologies, electronics, and automotives, to power transmission infrastructure, data centers, and defense systems—depends on copper.  ...

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 introduced a host of new tax credits, grants, and other incentive programs designed to boost domestic manufacturing of clean energy technologies and their components. The Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (PTC) is a key initiative that targets not only the downstream production of technologies like electric vehicle (EV) batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines, but also boosting the upstream critical minerals industry by providing credit to offset high, and sometimes prohibitive, production costs....