In 2021, Zambia became the first country to default on its external debt after the Covid-19 pandemic. The mining sector is a bedrock of the country’s economy. Since 2010, mining has played an increasingly significant role in Zambia’s GDP. However, the country has struggled to attract or retain investment owing to significant policy instability. In 2018, Zambia raised its royalty rate for the 10th time in 16 years, withheld value-added tax refunds, imposed double taxation as mineral royalties were no longer tax deductible, adopted a resource nationalism approach by implementing a 5 percent import duty on copper concentrates, and created an environment with uncertainty of tenure. Production dropped despite strong copper prices. According to the Zambian Chamber of Mines, in 2019 companies withheld over $650 million in investments....

Middle Eastern countries are competing with China in making investments in Africa...

The country’s platinum production should not be dropping at a time of shrinking deficits...

Despite facing significant macroeconomic challenges, Argentina remains one of the most attractive mining jurisdictions in the world, given both its mineral potential and the stability of its investor-friendly mining policies. Exploration expenditures in Argentina increased by 77.1 percent between 2021 and 2023, from $241 million to $427 million. Argentina was the third-largest recipient of lithium exploration expenditures, receiving $139.9 million worth of expenditures, and the eighth-largest recipient of copper exploration expenditures, receiving $103.4 million worth of expenditures....

On May 14, 2024, the White House announced increased tariffs on Chinese imports “across strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, critical minerals, solar cells, ship-to-shore cranes, and medical products.” Many of these sectors are key to the Biden administration’s plans to reshore manufacturing to increase supply chain resilience and improve the political economy of the energy transition....

Values for the bedrock of energy and economic security have hit a three-year high, and investment in exploration backs the story...

Consensus points to continent being key part of mining’s future...

The U.S. government has prioritized reducing its reliance on China for critical minerals needed for national, economic, and energy security. China developed an advantage in mineral production because of decades of focused industrial policy and state support for domestic processing, manufacturing offtake, and global extraction. It succeeded at building strong supply chains by securing supply both domestically and internationally, particularly from emerging markets. For example, as of 2020, Chinese-backed companies own or have an equity stake in 15 of the 19 cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo....

South Africa’s Johannesburg-Pretoria metropolitan area developed as a result of the local gold supply in the late 1800s, and infrastructure, a financial sector and housing were built to support this booming sector. But if you travel internationally in the world of mining you’ll notice something: much of the world’s expertise in mining is from SA. ...

This is a year marked by uncertainty — 64 countries, accounting for 49% of the world’s population — are holding national elections....

The examples of Zambia and Tanzania should be followed...

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a unilateral trade preference program that was enacted by President Bill Clinton in 2000. With its authorization expiring in 2025, there is an ongoing debate on how to reform it. By adding a critical minerals agreement to the AGOA reauthorization, U.S. Congress can incentivize non-Chinese investments in both mining and processing in eligible African countries, which have key reserves of the minerals it has long turned to China for....

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Likely rate cuts from the US and India will drive up aggregate demand...

The country is deploying significant amounts of capital and fostering unprecedented levels of co-operation in the critical minerals space...