This is the first installment in a five-part series providing data-driven analysis and recommendations to strengthen U.S.-Africa collaboration in the critical minerals sector....

Washington has almost no alternative: until 2023 China processed 99% of the world’s heavy rare earth elements...

As the Group of Seven (G7) prepares to hold its 51st Summit in June 2025 in Kananaskis, Canada, critical mineral security is poised to be a major topic of discussion. All G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) have emphasized securing critical minerals as a strategic priority. In the G7 Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ 2023 Communiqué, the group stressed “the growing importance of critical minerals for the clean energy transition and the need to prevent economic and security risks caused by vulnerable supply chains, monopolization, and lack of diversification of existing suppliers of critical minerals.” Since then, individual countries have released executive orders and national strategies for developing critical mineral resources. However, there is significant scope to strengthen coordination between these seven countries to mobilize collective resources, diversify, and de-risk supply chains....

The Issue...

On Wednesday, April 30, 2025, the United States and Ukraine signed a long-awaited deal to establish a joint investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The fund will be capitalized, in part, by revenues from future natural resource extraction. The newly signed agreement is a positive step in U.S.-Ukraine relations following contentious meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. While more favorable to Ukraine than earlier iterations, the deal’s effectiveness hinges on long-term peace and stable investment conditions. Key barriers include outdated geological surveys, degraded energy infrastructure, and unresolved security risks. The agreement reflects the Trump administration’s transactional approach to mineral diplomacy and may serve as a template for similar deals, such as the emerging U.S.–Democratic Republic of the Congo cooperation framework....

On Thursday, April 24, President Donald Trump revealed his latest executive order (EO) aimed at securing critical mineral supply chains and countering China’s dominance in the industry. “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources” directs the Department of Commerce, in coordination with a number of executive agencies, to pursue the exploration and exploitation of deep-sea resources both within the U.S. exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and areas beyond national jurisdiction. For decades, the United States has remained on the sidelines of the deep-sea mining debate as an international body has governed the world’s richest seabed resources. The Trump administration has unequivocally signaled this will no longer be the case. The emphasis on U.S. leadership in the deep-sea mining arena demonstrates the administration’s commitment to an all-of-the-above approach to securing critical mineral supply chains. Nevertheless, this shift in deep-sea mining policy carries major implications for U.S. maritime security and the U.S.-China competition for critical resources....

China doesn’t import manufactured products while the US market is more diverse...

On April 4, China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements (REEs) and magnets used in the defense, energy, and automotive sectors in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff increases on Chinese products. The new restrictions apply to 7 of 17 REEs—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium—and requires companies to secure special export licenses to export the minerals and magnets....

While workforce exchanges offer a form of economic co-operation, SA firms can play a role in developing American mines...

The shutdown of Cobre Panamá—one of the largest copper mines globally—has become a cautionary tale of how political risk can undermine significant investments from Western mining companies. Developed and operated by Canadian company First Quantum Minerals, the mine represented the largest private investment in Panama’s history, totaling $10 billion, or about 12 percent of the country’s GDP. After beginning operations in 2019, the mine quickly became an economic pillar, contributing nearly 5 percent of GDP, 7 percent of current external revenues, and employing around 40,800 people—roughly 2 percent of the workforce. It also played a critical role in global copper supply at a time when many existing mines are aging and output is declining, standing out as one of the few major copper mines that entered production worldwide in the past 15 years....

The Issue...

For many years, while China strategically secured minerals from around the world, the United States rarely used foreign policy to obtain the minerals it needs. That has finally changed — and dramatically so. Within the first 40 days of President Trump’s term, he has expressed interest in acquiring Greenland for its rare earths; annexing Canada, with its vast reserves of uranium and copper; and securing control over Ukraine’s rare earths and titanium in exchange for continued U.S. support....

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have reached a bilateral agreement for the United States to jointly invest in Ukraine’s critical minerals and other valuable resources. While the framework leaves many details to be worked out, this is the first agreement of its kind. As additional countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, seek a similar deal, understanding the terms of the Ukraine deal and its likely efficacy has important implications for U.S. mineral security....

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are in discussions regarding an agreement that would grant the United States access to Ukraine’s critical minerals and other valuable resources. While the specifics are still being finalized, the deal would allow the United States to obtain a portion of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in compensation for the financial aid provided to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia and potentially for future aid....

Allowing the relationship to continue on the current trajectory could prove to be a costly war that has no winners...